This afternoon, Ontario’s Finance Minister, the Honourable Peter Bethlenfalvy, tabled the 2025 Fall Economic Statement (FES) titled A Plan to Protect Ontario.
Financial Summary
The Government of Ontario is projecting a $13.5 billion deficit this fiscal year, less than the $14.6 billion forecast from the May budget. The government is forecasting a deficit of $7.8 billion in 2026-27 and a surplus of $0.2 billion in 2027-28.
The Ontario debt is projected to be $458.6 billion in 2025-26. The provincial net debt‐to‐GDP ratio in 2025–26 is now projected to be 37.7%. The government expects 0.8% real GDP growth this year, 0.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, with total expenses expected to be $234.6 billion in 2025-26.
Economic Highlights
- An investment of an additional $100 million in the Ontario Together Trade Fund, designed to help Ontario businesses operate in the current economic climate.
- Waiving of the 8% provincial portion of the HST for first-time buyers of new homes that cost less than $1 million, which could save buyers up to $80,000.
- Investing $500 million to create the Critical Minerals Processing Fund to support projects that accelerate critical mineral processing capacity in the province.
- Supporting Ontarians affected by tariffs through the $5 billion Protect Ontario Financing Program (POFP), meant to support Ontario-based businesses impacted by higher tariff rates in the steel, aluminum, copper and auto sectors.
Tariff Response
- Investing $20 million into Protect Ontario Workers Employment Response (POWER) Centres to provide access to training and upskilling workers who may be at risk of layoffs.
- A new development of Ontario’s Tax Action Plan to focus on updating Ontario’s personal and corporate income taxes to attract more business investment, help improve Ontario’s competitiveness in the G7, and lower costs for individuals and families in the future.
Advanced Manufacturing and Technology
- Investing $1 billion to build the G7’s first small modular reactors in Darlington, which is meant to help with Ontario’s clean energy goals and create thousands of jobs.
- Developing the second and third streams of the $4 billion Protecting Ontario Account.
- Expanding the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC) to temporarily enhance the tax credit rate by 5% and provide access to the tax credit as a 15% non-refundable version to corporations that are not Canadian-controlled private corporations (CCPCs).
Health Care
- An additional $1.1 billion over the next three years to home care and the Hospital to Home (H2H) program.
- Planned investments are in place to build 58,000 new and upgraded long-term care beds across the province by 2028 to modern design standards.
- Introducing new tools for the long-term care sector to support financing of long-term care beds with the support of the Building Ontario Fund.
- Advancing Ontario’s $2.1 billion Primary Care Action Plan to build a primary care system including $235 million in 2025–26 to create and expand 130 primary care teams, $300 million over four years to build 17 new and expanded primary care teaching clinics, and $250 million to launch the next call for proposals to create and expand 75 additional primary care teams.
- Investing $56 billion over 10 years in health infrastructure
Infrastructure
- $400 million for 423 rural, small, and northern communities will be invested in the Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund.
- $600 million will be invested in the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund to ensure municipalities can provide critical services, with $100 million increase to the program over two years.
- Investing $200 million over three years to support the construction of new sports and recreational facilities through the Community Sport and Recreation Infrastructure Fund.
- Forecast of 70,200 new housing units across the province next year, with 79,600 in 2027 and 83,700 in 2028.
- Investing an additional $1.6 billion in the Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program to speed up construction on homes and critical infrastructure.
Labour
- A commitment of $2.5 billion to the Skills Development Fund to enhance training programs and expand training facilities across Ontario to support the construction, expansion, and retrofitting of training facilities through the Capital Stream of the fund.
- Continuing to invest an additional $159.3 million over three years to strengthen skilled trades programs.
- Expanding its annual Level Up! Career Fairs in partnership with Skilled Trades Ontario, aiming to connect a record number of students, educators, and job seekers with in-demand skilled trades careers.
- Starting January 1, 2026, certified professionals from other Canadian provinces, including architects, engineers, electricians and geoscientists, will be able to start working in Ontario within 10 days once credentials and requirements are confirmed by a regulator.
Other Announcements
- Expanding GO Transit with new stations and extended services, including the Kitchener, Niagara, Woodbine, and Bowmanville lines, to improve connectivity, reduce gridlock, and support jobs and housing.
- Ontario has called on the federal government to enact and enhance all outstanding clean economy investment tax credits (ITCs).
- The Building Ontario Fund (BOF), with an enhancement of $3 billion in loan guarantees, will begin engaging Indigenous communities and organizations, as well as infrastructure financing experts, on the expansion of the Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program (IOFP).
- Creating a centralized digital permitting system that streamlines how businesses apply for and monitor permits.
- Continuing to go ahead with the Highway 401 tunnel proposal, the construction of Highway 413, and the Bradford Bypass.
- $50 million to Ontario-based VC funds focused on technologies that support national defence and related technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.
